tv Closing Bell CNBC November 5, 2013 3:00pm-4:01pm EST
art alluded by nazis, more than 1400 paintings valued at more than $1 billion, with paintings, c chagal, matisse, picasso, stolen art. they have to find out -- >> give it back to the owners. >> yes. >> thanks, robert frank. >> thank you for watching "street signs," everybody. hi, everybody. good afternoon. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. coming to you live from bank of america. >> we're watching a market that started the day pretty sharply lower. down about 80 points on the dow but a report out that says the fed could be keeping interest rates lower for a lot longer than anybody thought. brought us off those lows. you may have heard, there is some fed economists who have worked on a paper that says they
should lower their expectations, their threshold, for unemployment. right now it's 6.5%, before they start tapering. they could lower it to 6%, maybe even 5.5% before they start seriously thinking about tapering. and any guess as to when we get 6% unemployment, that could be a ways duown the road here. >> the 6.5% level was the key reason you and i were not expecting the taper because we weren't even near that. to think we're going lower, 5.5% as a marker, is extraordinary. we'll be joined by bank of america brian moynihan, we'll have a discussion with this on interest rates, and a lot to get into with him. we'll get his take on where business is headed as we head into year end, bill. >> especially if the fed keeps rates a lot lower a lot longer. that has a big impact on bank bottom line. after the bell, highly anticipated earnings from tesla.
of course, many expect a blowout quarter now that the model s is widely available. we hear it's selling well. we'll have those numbers, along with analysis you can only find here on cnbc on "closing bell." that stock has been a huge mover this year, so there's a lot of interest in those results. we'll have those coming up in about an hour. >> it's been one of the momentum stocks to own, for sure, in this momentum market. let's take a look at the market with dow jones industrial average into negative territory, down about two points. still well off the lows. hitting the low at the open this morning. rallied up on that report bill just told you about and now flat on the day at 15,636. check the nasdaq, a similar chart pattern although the nasdaq still in positive territory with a gain in the session of about 8.75 points, 3945. standard & poor's 500 index, similar chart pattern as we approach the end of the day for trading down two points on the
standard & poor's at 1765, bill. >> markets struggling to remain unchanged, bob pisani. you had the report on fed, what they're thinking about unemployment, unemployment on friday. >> we are flat now. it was worse earlier. we'll put the s&p back up again. we had i&m services come back and we dropped the yen on that. good news for the economy but revived concerns about the fed perhaps beginning its tapering process a little earlier than expected. most people thinking march. some people think december at this point. interest rates are an issue, bill. take a look at the ten-year yield shot up again at 10:00 when that ism number came out. we were 2.48. just about the time the fmoc meeting last week. now over 2.6% and heading toward 2.7%. that's a major concern. the biggest problem the market has right now. in terms of earnings, still getting numbers coming in. consumer staples stocks came in. cvs, a terrific stock.
walgreens with comparable store sales out, better than expected. that whole group is on the upside. safeway, conagra, tyson as well. coors had great number. strong earnings. upbeat guidance. pulling coach up, ralph lauren, nordstrom, to the upside. exchanges, nyse and i.c.e. i.c.e. did a tremendous job. nyse a little below expectations but still to the upside. we're waiting for that deal to close, ceo of i.c.e. expects to happen in a matter of days. on the conference call he made a number of interesting comments. he said, there is a sense that things aren't fair. he says, i think the market model is going to change. he didn't elaborate but he's setting himself up as a champion of the little guy. there has been -- and he has
expressed some dissatisfaction with parts of the market. we'll see if he follows up on that. one thing i want to point out in the markets is small caps have been underperforming recently. in the last five days russell 2000 now 1.4%, s&p only down 0.3%. last two days, it too short a period to make a big trend, but it's been unusual. small caps have been huge movers. this is the first time we've seen an underperformance. i'll keep an eye on that and let you know if it turns into a trend. >> we saw the blue chips away from small caps last week. let's talk about this market in our "closing bell exchange." rick santelli, michael, and rick who has his blackberry. danny, the market loves, i guess, the notion that the fed would delay tapering if they're going to lower their expectations for unemployment
down the road. you're not a favor of that, are you? >> long term i'm definitely not a fan of it. short term we've had -- >> it's been good for the market. >> it's been great for the market. the market came back almost 100 points today. the fed's expansion has altered the business cycle. the market metrics we're so use to have been completely distorted. you see that because investors are buying inflated cash flows and corporations are selling short future cash flows because they're putting them into dividends. the real concern long term is something we talked about a number of times, bill and maria, is there's been no investment in real productive assets. across the united states. when you don't have -- when you have assets that are getting older and older, they're producing less and less cash. this is a problem for the long-term. it's a big problem. >> rob, what about that? i know you think this market is still cheap in terms of valuations. does it get -- does it keep moving higher if, in fact, we see rates move even lower and
this expectation that unemployment marker should be lower than 6.5%? >> thanks, maria. yes, good to be with you. interesting question. look, i think the best position to be in in this market is to be a practicimatist. if you look ahead into next year, look at s&ps, bottoms-up estimates earnings at 122, if the pe stays the same at 16, that implies a price target of 1942, 1946. i think there is room to run. i think you have to take what the market and economy are giving you. so far that's been pretty good news. >> rich, you acknowledged dani, santelli, what about her point that we're sort of borrowing from the future to keep these rates as low as they are right now? >> well, i think that's probably fair. i'm not exactly sure if there's true demand for that many more productive assets in the state of the economy right now. i think one of the problems is,
they had very low nominal growth. they think we can make due. so i think that's certainly long-term structural issue. i think what we've seen in the markets is monetary policy that seems still to be treating this like an early economic recovery or even a just barely post-recession economy, and you have financial markets that have come a long way to build in the profit growth we've seen in the last few years. so it's a mismatch in timing which is why i think if you extrapolate out, it ends in a bubbly state. i don't think we're there yet, though. >> rick santelli, let's talk about reaction to that report. what did you see when that report first hit that, in fact, we could see the new marker at 5.5% on the unemployment rate for the fed? >> well, some glaring things is what i saw. look at one-day chart of the dow jones industrial average. intraday chart of higher noted yields. you see higher stocks and higher interest rates. the story is qe is going to go on.
they're going to target a lower unemployment rate even though it's tenuous what they're doing truly makes employment better, but interest rates are moving up. as a matter of fact, look at a three-week chart. these are going to be the highest yield closes in three weeks. and not only that, let's benchmark it against overseas. here we are seeing qe could be around longer and yet the spread between the tens and the boons has widened 15 basis points in just one week. so, in my opinion, they could say whatever they want to say. it doesn't mean they're really addressing the issue of improving employment. and what's worse, the treasury market on the mid to long maturities are going the wrong way. >> why do you think that is, rick? that's the real conundrum right now? we're heading to 270 at a time they're talking about no taper f ing for a long time. what happened? >> they're trying to compress interest rate. every person who weighs over 200 pounds stacked up on top of the
spring. the market's thinking, hey, sooner or later, these people have to get off and we'll have an outsized response. probably more outsized than what happened in may because they pulled it back. >> thanks, everybody. appreciate it. we have a market that is hovering around break-even with the dow up just about six points. we'll see you soon. s&p 500 also right around break-even. we had that big rally, bill, but we've given up much of it. >> yes, we have. meantime, mall operators facing security dilemma after a shooting at a very popular mall here in new jersey last night. how can they make shoppers feel safe without making malls feel like a fortress? we'll talk about that coming up. and later, coming up, my exclusive interview with bank of america ceo brian moynihan, how his bank is handling the regulatory environment and are layoffs done at this point? what's the story going into year end? we'll talk about that a lot more at b of a and the industry. i see a world bursting with opportunity,
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up security so much that many simply avoid the malls? courtney reagan looking at that angle today. >> good afternoon. no secret the small traffic has already been on the decline in recent years as more shoppers shift to online purchases. and while violence incidents give shoppers pause for the very near term, president of sw retail advisers and cnbc contributor says shoppers tend to have short memories for these types of incidents. she also says retailers need to send signals to shoppers to let them know they're safe. there's a fine line between projecting safety and making it harder for consumers to shop. mark cohen, former ceo of sears canada says malls immediately revisit security plans and coverage plan to determine if they were acting in accord with their own policies and whether or not they need to adjust them going forward. the mall of america says it has, implemented extra security precautions. some may be noticeable to guests and others won't be.
mall of america conducts monthly lockdown drills with tenants. may executive says no one wants to make it harder for consumers to shop in store so there's reluctance to add things like metal detectors and bag checks at a time when the customer is willing to sit at home and shop yoen line. >> thank you very much. we're just a few days removed from the deadly shooting at l.a.x., los angeles international airport last friday. that sparked discussions, including a discussion right here on "closing bell" last friday about stiffer security at the nation's airports. we also talked about how to better protect our nation's public shopping centers across the country. including with one of our next guests here, maria. >> our scott cohen is at the scene at garden state plaza, and joining us is mall security, michael rosen. michael, let's kick it off with you. the new jersey mall shooter was able to walk into the mall, he
had a rifle. what kind of measures do you think need to be taken to prevent that from happening again? >> maria, and bill, thank you for having me here. >> welcome back. >> thank you, bill. it's important to understand that incidents like this don't just happen. and as much as we're focused on response, we have to invest and quadruple our effort when it comes to prevention. that is the only opportunity we have to truly prevent incidents like that from happening in the future. >> scott, i mean, you're there at the mall. i've been there many times. we all have. those of us who live in this area here. i mean, it's a -- it's an open target. i hate to use that term, but, i mean, it's very easy to get into. you're anonymous. it's a huge mall. i can understand how easy it would be to penetrate the perimeter there. >> well, that's the issue. it's the issue that faces the security professionals who look at this. the idea is supposed to be that
the perimeter goes out here into the parking lot and that they're looking at people as they go in, unusual patterns and things like that. there are so many entrances into a shopping mall. particularly this time of the year, so much traffic, that is really is difficult. unless you turn it into a fortress, which is not what anybody wants to do, it is very, very difficult. the security people we've spoken to over the last couple months have said, if you go shopping, you need to take it upon yourself to have a plan. i mean, it's a horrible thing to think about, but you need to think about what would you do if a gunman came bursting into the mall, like the one did here last night. >> that's unbelievable that you have to start thinking about that like that. i mean, would metal detectors checking cars before they enter mall parking lots be a solution or is that really deter rent to even go to the mall. what do you think, michael? >> i think we don't need to turn
our malls into fortresses. looking for the weapon and weapon only is only a partial solution. i think it's very important to have well-equipped and trained security personnel at the entry points, vehicle entry points, pedestrian entry points, that don't necessarily perform metal detection screening but able to identify malicious intent. if you think about the perpetrator yesterday, he stands out. he clearly stands out. well trained, equipped security professional would have been able to identify him and act upon it right then and there. there's much more effort we put on early detection and position our security assets in a way they're able to do so, the better we'll be. >> but, michael, i mean, you know adding onto maria's question, and you and i talked about this, you're not a fan of metal detectors. but if you want shoppers to feel safe, what about putting metal detectors in, if nothing else,
to let them know security is on the job as they make their way into the mall that day? >> look, metal detectors is only a partial solution to the question. looking for the weapon and weapon only, historically has proven as, overall, an ineffective strategy. you know, if we want to complement the trained security officers with screening for weapons, great. there are a number of tech knowled solutions for shopping malls to use. the key factor is to identify malicious intent. >> how do you identify it? if prevention is not 100% perfect, what are the technologies you're referring to, then? >> there are a number of technologies available today on the market that allow -- allow organizations to identify potential presence of weapons as the person enters any
environment, through integration cameras, heat detection and other ways. >> scott, do we have any sense, have you heard any evidence that security personnel there at garden state plaza had any notion something was going on? i mean, do you have a sense of the kind of security measures they were taking there? >> it doesn't appear that they noticed anything. and whether that was a lapse in security or whether it was just somebody that wasn't watching, we don't know. in fact, we don't know whether this weapon was concealed when he walked in. one of the things that we've talked about with security officials, particularly after kenyan, the mall security guard, their derided as mall cops, they're now supposed to be more like cop on the beat who knows who's coming and going.
there's new technology but also old fashioned shoe leather police work. they're more sophisticated than they were but is there enough of them? did they know this person came and went to the mall? was he unusual to see that? should that set off red flags that there was this 20-year-old kid who wasn't a customer here or came in on a motorcycle helmet? >> good question. >> i know you'll take this in the right vein, but i hope we don't talk any time soon. >> thank you, bill. i appreciate it. >> scott, thanks, as always. >> well, maria, look at the dow board right now. it's that kind of day. this is very much a wait and see market still. we're waiting for the twitter ipo on thursday. more economic data and that all-important jobs number. with 40 minutes left, the dow is virtually unchanged right now. >> meanwhile, you can make money in media skotocks. they're red hot. merrill lynch still sees big
opportunities, big ones in this group. >> also, who really is to blame for blackberry's troubles? ♪ we've got it all ♪ before the beady little eyes ♪ we've got it all >> actually, we are going to hear from somebody who says canada's nationalism is killing the smartphone maker and costing them a lot of money. americans take care of business.
get ready for more high-profile earnings. tesla and 20th century fox getting set to report after the bell. dominic chu with a preview. >> tesla, phil lebeau has been saying it's all about the numbers beyond headline profits and sales figures. investors will be looking at three big things. model s delivery, 5700 of them. gross margins, look between 16% and 20%. anything higher, the stock will take off. anything lower, we could see a bit of a selloff there. then 21st century fox, reporting earnings as well. look for earnings of 37 cents a share on sales of $6.7 billion. they'll be looking to see how the cable television and movie business is for them and what it
says about the rest of the business. back to you. >> media stocks in general have been red hot this year. my next guest says there's significant upside for select companies. the cable entry is undervalued. she joins me, bank of america jessica reef cohen, one of the top media consultants. and today she's naming names. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> you've been a student and leader in this industry for so long. >> thank you so much. >> what's behind the big rally in the stocks? >> the stocks have been on fire, it's true. a part of the reason for the entertainment stocks, part of the strength is due to capital returns, buy backs. i would argue viacom and time warner have had good operating performances but good buy backs so they're up 60% this year. some of the companies, we're just going through a period where you'll start to see capital returns. cbs where they've had phenomenal operating performance is also --
i think they will continue to have superior execution but we're about to combine that with buybacks, with financial engineering, and that should be very powerful. >> cbs out tomorrow with earnings. are you expecting a good quarter? >> yes. the advertising market is strong. cbs has been the growth of retransmission extent. those dollars have grown dramatically and will continue to grow for three to five years if not longer. cbs suffered that blackout with time warner cable which resulted in time warner cable losing 300,000 subscribers in the first quarter, worst ever. for cbs they'll take a little on the chin at the local level but going forward, their retrans dollars will grow by multiples. >> disney reports thursday and comcast, because that's your favorite. let's stay on this idea because of the fight between time warner and cbs. everybody wants more money for
their content. then netflix coming on board, amazon making waves here. so, who wins and loses in a netflix world? increasingly, this company is taking content. >> absolutely. that's the key. the biggest winner in these new, netflix and amazon, are the content companies. television has never been healthier. people are watching more than ever because there are devices, you can get play back, catch up, binge viewing on amazon and netflix. let's say seasons one or two would be the peak in viewing historically. now we're seeing peak viewing season four and five because people have caught up to "mad men" or other shows. netflix is also buying original programming. there's more buyers, more windowing. cbs has made so much money from their netflix and amazon deals. and it's part -- part of it is the windowing, part is selling library content. they had a creative deal with "under the dome" with amazon where amazon took the show several days later. it's been creative.
basically we have a new buyer and way to catch up and it's been healthy. >> it's great that les moonves doug in on the cbs fight with time warner. >> oh, absolutely. it cemented. fox and cbs have been really, you know, driving this very hard. comcast can't because nbc has the -- they have a consent decree but they can follow, and they will. >> let's talk about comcast. that's your favorite stock? >> absolutely. >> why? >> i mean, they straddle distribution and content. on the distribution side we think the drivers will be, believe it or not, video. the new guides that are coming out, the cloud-based guide, are amazing and in our view will lead to more usage, more viewing because it's so intuitive, search and recommendation functions. on broad band a long way to go in terms of penetration and pricing. voice, there's a $5 cost per line. voice is coming along as part of the bundle. s&m, the commercial business is growing revenue, 25% to 30% with very high margins, 50% plus.
home monitoring is actually a very new business. so, on the cable side i think things are solid. on the nbc-u side there's tremendous upside in every division because part of it was that ge starved the business for capital. it wasn't a primary business. am we think of television -- there's retrans, we just talked about that. they'll go from making $40 million to $200 million this year on the way to $800 million. that's retrans. station margins will go up, telemundo, spanish language station is getting traction. >> what a story. comcast is the parent company of cnbc and cnbc-universal. our parent company. great to hear such a great story you think they have such a good story. disney reporting earnings on thursday. would you buy the stock ahead of the numbers? >> we really like disney. obviously "thor" coming out this
week, a big movie for them. as you look out to 2015, a sequel to avengers, a sequel to "finding nemo," star wars the trilogy, shanghai theme park. just huge amount of drivers. so, there are a lot of catalysts for disney, well-run company and thir stepping up buybacks. >> stock has done well. we'll have bob igor on the show friday. jessica reif cohen as we visit her trading floor, bank of america. the dow jones industrial average down about 11 points. we're about 30 minutes away from the closing bell, bill. >> stocks have been moving today on a report the fed may change the benchmark it's looking for the evil level of unemployment before it thinks about beginning to taper. there are some who feel we could see these incredibly low interest rates well in the 2020s.
is that the clearest buy signal yet? we have top money manager bob doll weighing in on that in a minute. bank of america shares up 20% this year, underperforming the red hot banking index. coming up, ceo brian moynihan will join me to talk about the plan for boosting the stock and growing the business. that's next on "closing bell." i am today by luck. i put in the hours and built a strong reputation in the industry. i set goals and worked hard to meet them. i've made my success happen. so when it comes to my investments, i'm supposed to just hand it over to a broker and back away? that's not gonna happen. avo: when you work with a schwab financial consultant,
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jackie has more on that story. >> as the u.s. awaits a decision on the stalled keystone pipeline project, railways in canada have been addingapacit raising this question, how necessary is keystone? ihs estimates by the end of year, rail loading capacity could grow enough to handle 700,000 barrels of crude a day from the oil sands region in western canada. keystone is designed to carry 830 barrels a day. rail capacity is essentially in line. the question is, how much it's going to cost to use rail as a means of transport for crude. estimates indicate right now that shipping oil domestically by rail is about $4 to $5 more expensive per barrel than by pipeline and shipping rail from the canadian oil sands to the gulf coast would be $7 or more expensive per barrel. the cost is definitely higher, but if keystone doesn't get approved, rail is definitely a viable option.
what about safety? last summer's fatal accident in quebec has raised eyebrows but analysts say they face fewer obstacles than pipelines. >> people don't realize shipping crude by rail is safe. in fact, we are shipping over 800,000 barrels a day of ethanol throughout the country to meet motor fuel requirements. and one rarely hears about an incident by rail. >> so, for more on how rail could make keystone somewhat irrelevant, check out cnbc where our news executive has a lot more detail on this specific story. >> that is really interesting. we're 20 minutes away from the closing bell on wall street. a market down a fraction. dow down about eight points, bill. >> listen to this, the s&p has done something this year, it's done something this year that has only happened four times in history. each of those four times, the stock market has gained in november and december. is that what's going to happen this year? dominic chu will join us on why investors should be optimistic going into the new year. that's coming up next.
and after the bell, bank of america ceo brian moynihan with us, talking with me exclusively about the state of his bank, the regulatory environment. join us. weekdays are for rising to the challenge. they're the days to take care of business. when possibilities become reality. with centurylink as your trusted partner, our visionary cloud infrastructure and global broadband network free you to focus on what matters. with custom communications solutions and responsive, dedicated support, we constantly evolve to meet your needs. every day of the week. centurylink® your link to what's next.
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they say what goes up, must come down. if history is any indication, that might not be the case with the stock market this year. dominic chu joins us. >> last hour in "street signs" we told you what happened over the last 50 years. only four times the stock market has been up by as much through the first ten months of the year, 20% or more, and each of the last four times the market has finished out with gains. we went back to 1929, so even further back to see if there were more times the s&p has finished up by 20% in the first ten months of the year. it's happened 12 different times since the depression, since 1929, where the market has gone over 20% in the first ten months. now, if you look at those 12 times, 10 of those 12 times, so a pretty decent batting average here, 10 of those 12 times, the last two months of the year have actually been up for the s&p 500
as well. so, we are seeing some good statistical data, at least for the historical side of things for the market to go up. and on average in those 12 times, the market has gone up by about 5% in the months of november and december combined. so it looks like it's not just the last 50 years, bill, maria, it's the last 12 times this has happened and the market seemed to finish up. maybe this bull run does have a few legs. back over to you. >> thank you. >> joining us is someone who's been bullish on this market, nuvene strategist, bop dob doll. do you think this market has legs? would you put new money to work? i know you've been right about this market, but would you put new money to work right here? >> i would. i guess my caution is how much we've come up in the short term, meaning since the teeth of the consternation around the government, the s&p is up more than 100 points and that's not
that long ago without hardly a break. some time between here and the end of the year i think we get at least a consolidation, a sideways move, but i would agree with the last report that december 31st more likely to be higher than where we are today. so, i wouldn't hesitate to put some money to work. i would add finally, maria, i think for sustained upside, we need better visibility on revenues and earnings growth. >> but you have also made it clear publicly, bob, that you feel like the investors are in a win-win situation as far as the economy and the fed go, even if the economic data come out poorly. and we're not seeing much growth in this economy. that's still a win for investors because the fed is less likely to taper. just today there is that report that says economists at the fed are thinking about lowering the metric they're using. right now they're to begin tapering when the unemployment gets to 6 .5%. they might lower that to 6%, maybe even as low as 5.5%, which
would suggest that qe's going to be with us a lot longer than anticipated. what do you think? >> well, there's certainly that possibility. i want to be clear, i don't think slower growth than we've been having is sufficient for the stock market to go higher. but if we stay in this two-ish range, the fed will remain our best friend. and some would say, but the fed eventually will be less impactful. we may already be seeing that. i think any one statistic, like the unemployment rate, is dangerous to hang your hat on. i think it's a collection of things, the unemployment rate being one of them, real growth, inflation are the other two the fed is watching carefully, as you know. >> if we were to see a year-end rally, bob, what do you think are the groups that are going to lead? would you stick with these momentum stocks that have been the leadership of this market all year, or do you want to switch gears? do you like the banks, for example? where's the exposure? >> yeah, mostly, i'd say, maria,
the common factor is free cash flow. can you find that lots of places. but i prefer cyclicals to defenses. i'm still of the stubborn view, the u.s. and global growth will be better in '14 than it was in '13. so industrial stocks, selected technology, materials, even some consumer names will continue to be okay at the expense of utilities and telecom and staples. >> let me get a response to a tweet that pimco -- bill gross put out today. he said -- we're quoting. we'll show you the tweet. almost all global assets going down in price. there's a whiff of illiquidity. cash is queen today. maybe in the future. are you worried about deflation or whatever he's talking about right now? >> no -- >> that's a big statement. >> -- very few inflation hedges and deflation hedges. that would be companies with strong balance sheets, positive free cash flow. that is still the lingering worry.
the last bastion, hopefully last of these deflationary forces. i think that's something to pay attention to. that's why we need nominal growth. >> the comment there's a whiff of illiquiddy, what do you make of that, bob? >> i don't know where bill's seeing that in the markets. >> exactly. i don't see that. so, i'm just wondering if you're seeing that. >> i don't see a lot of discontinuities, which you often see when there's illiquidity. maybe i'm not moving the same kind of money bill is and he's having trouble moving it around. we don't have liquidity problems. >> what about your cash levels, do you keep them higher than you would otherwise at this point? >> in equity portfolios, i would not have much cash at all. i think the path of least resistance will be to the upside, particularly when i'm earning zero on my cash. so, not much cash at all. >> when do -- >> we've had plenty of guys on here who say, i don't mind cash because i'm not losing money. i don't have the risk of losing
money in this equity bubble they feel like we're building under quantitative easing. >> yeah, i don't see it. i don't see a bubble. bubble to me includes extended over ownership on love raj. i don't find enough of that to say there's a bubble being created. do i agree with those folks to say we need more fundamental strength, revenue and earnings growth, absolutely. but i'm not sure we're in bubble territory. >> i love how bullish you are. everything we throw at you, you say, no, that's not actually how -- >> i'm trying, maria. >> very good. let me ask you this. at some point you said we'll need to see clarity on revenues and earnings. when would you expect that clarity, in 2014 or what? it's been a while we've been looking for clarity in -- >> yeah, some time in '14, hopefully the first half. we're getting less bad news out of europe. some stabilization in china. sequestration will down-tick to some degree.
i think we'll get a little more cap ex. consumer net worth is an all time high so they're spending a little money. i'm not painting the picture of straight up big pace. my long-term view on big he can up equities is 6% to 8% per annum. >> bob doll joining us. 12 minutes until the closing bell sounds. nasdaq is higher by seven points but the dow industrial negative by seven. >> and still to come, now it can be told. canada would not allow lonovo to buy blackberry because it's a chinese company so lenovo never made a bid. did canadian government cost shareholders a bundle as that stock languishes in the $6 range. o, canada. we look at that later coming up on the "closing bell."
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at this hour. joining us with their thoughts on this market, daniel and warren myers. gentlemen, good to see you. this market is waiting for something. what is it? >> i think we have -- probably the big thing this week is the nonfarm payroll number at the end of the week. although, it's probably going to be a bad number based off what happened. >> what would a bad number look like? >> under 100,000. >> you think it could be that low? >> i think it could be. you throw a little government shutdown in this number, so that will affect it. even though it's an important number, i think you might be able to look at it a little lighter than normal based off that information. >> that's interesting, warren. is that priced into the market? what do you think? i haven't heard below 100,000 from a lot of people. if we get that kind of a weak number, what happens to stocks n your view? >> i think that pushes off any tapering by the fed, farther off in the distance. >> it's a positive. >> ultimately, not a bad thing for the equity market. >> does that make you want to buy stocks more if the tapering is put off longer?
>> doesn't make me want to sell them. wire fully invested as it is. >> are you? >> yeah. the worry here is investors are starting to push this market higher. a little faster than the earnings are coming in. we have 75% of the s&p having been reported. we're looking at about a 3% year-over-year gain, maybe a little better. but they're pushing the prices up. so i'm -- you know, parts of the market look expensive. parts of the market look reasonable, so we're happy to sort of weight toward the mega caps, big caps and stay there. >> we've had a lot of wait and see. warren, let me get your take on why i feel this market has been stagnant today and yesterday. not a lot of volume. not a lot of activity. are we waiting on twitter? some catalyst on the horizon to get this market going or what? >> i think it's a little tricky. i think part of the problem is we've had a market with a very strong run-up, obviously. you look at how well the s&p and the dow and all the indices have performed this year.
you're coming into the end of the year. you have a few overhangs starting the first of the year with the government potential -- another shutdown and the whole issue we just went through. as daniel just pointed out, not a sense, jump in and buy, we're at a sense where you don't want to sell. that leads to sideways movement. >> what would get you to buy or sell? >> if we sell, we're going to trim off our mid cap and small cap positions. we'll be buying or adding to positions in the large and mega cap. we buy managers, guys like matt fruhan and utility cap and they're in the mcdonald's, the microsofts, those sorts of companies probably have not been scoured as heavily as the smaller caps. you know, it's been a pretty aggressive bullish market. investors have really been after those companies. so, trim back a little there.
>> play it safe and go with a strong balance sheet? >> absolutely. >> good to see you both. thank you for your thoughts as we head toward the close. as we do that, we're heading to "the closing countdown" and waiting for tesla earnings coming up at the top of the hour. >> we're coming to you live from bank of america trading floor. equities trading. ceo brian moynihan will join me for an exclusive interview. what does he think that rates could stay low for a decade or more? we'll ask him about that and a lot more. "closing bell" continues in a minute. there, i said it. see, i knew testosterone could affect sex drive, but not energy or even my mood. that's when i talked with my doctor. he gave me some blood tests... showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number. [ male announcer ] today, men with low t have androgel 1.62% testosterone gel. the #1 prescribed topical testosterone replacement therapy increases testosterone when used daily. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or signs in a woman,
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going into the last two minutes of the trading session here. this is what we did today. this looks a lot like yesterday, as a matter of fact. maybe a different story line but the same effect. selloff on the open this morning. you had even a strong services sector report. didn't pull this market out until we got that report about the fed thinking about lowering their barometer on unemployment. going from 6% down to 6 -- going from 6.5% to 6%, maybe as low as 5.5% before they start tapering. at any rate, market came back. down 18 point on the close. now we get earnings tonight. this could be a big one. one of the huge momentum plays this year has been tesla. they're expecting earnings tonight of 11 cents, but the whisper number has been as high
as 17 or 20 cents, based on the data coming from whispernumber.com. that stock today is up $1.34. watch that one closely. and twenty-first century fox also. what is this market telling us? >> the market is telling us it's going to go higher. >> think so? >> yes. i think it's vacillating as we keep approaching the prior tops. >> what if the jobs number -- we were just talking to warren myers about this. what if the jobs number comes in really low. he was saying he heard it could come in with job growth below 100,000 for last month. >> that would surprise me but i think it has to be taken into context of the trend that's lasted the 12 to 14 months we've been watching numbers more precisely. one number is not going to upset the apple cart to me. i think there's enough evidence out there the fed is not going to stop its tapering any time soon anyway. so, i don't see the number having any real impact at this point.
and i see this market just vacillating around the tops and picking up steam and blowing through it. >> you're not fighting the fed, as they say. thanks, terry, very much. that will do it for the first hour. stay tuned. maria is at the bank of america trading floor. we have tesla earnings coming up in a second here on the second hour of the "closing bell." see you tomorrow. and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody, welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo. today coming to you live from the trading floor of bank of america. we had a mixed day in the markets as we close off the lows of the day. take a look at how we're settling out as we await highly anticipated earnings from tesla, in a moment. the dow finishing down 22 points, tractional move at 15,617. volume picked up at the end but not a lot. 631 million shares at the big board. nasdaq up was a